Chicago’s growing carjacking problem is a microcosm of what’s gone wrong in the city. Carjackings are more frequent, they are more weaponized, and there are fewer consequences than at almost any time in recent history. A Wirepoints analysis of city data shows that if 2022 year-to-date trends continue, Chicago carjackings will reach a new high this year, at least since 2001.
It appears clear: the City of Chicago’s political leadership does not have the will, the capability, or the competence to tamp down on this insidious crime. Without a major course correction, it spells even deeper trouble for the city.
At its current run-rate, Chicago will hit 1,960 carjackings in 2022 – the highest since at least 2001.* That’s up from a previous high of 1,848 carjackings in 2021 and more than triple the pre-Covid, pre-George Floyd 2019 baseline of 603 carjackings.
Our analysis using the city’s crime database shows that through June 30th of this year, Chicago is running ahead of last year’s record level of carjackings, with 806 in 2022 versus 760 through June 30, 2021.
It’s not only that we’re on pace for a new record. Some 76 percent of Chicago carjackings this year so far have been classified as “aggravated,” another record. Aggravated usually indicates the use of a weapon during a hijacking, although it can mean the victim was older than 60 or carrying a passenger younger than 16.
And while carjacking arrest rates have averaged 10 percent from 2010 through 2021, so far this year they are at a near-record low of 6 percent.
The crime of carjacking in Illinois is known by one of two official terms. Vehicular hijacking is a Class 1 felony and applies when a vehicle is taken by threat of force from a driver, but without a weapon. Aggravated vehicular hijacking, as we’ve noted, refers to a carjacking in which a weapon is used to take a vehicle from its driver, or the victim is disabled, greater than 60 years old, or carrying a passenger less than 16 years old. It is a Class X felony. In contrast, motor vehicle theft is the offense when a vehicle is taken with no driver present.
Minority neighborhoods suffer the brunt of Chicago carjackings worst. By Chicago police district, carjackings have from 2010 to mid-2022 been most prevalent in the 11th, 6th, and 12th districts. These are on the West, South and near Southwest Sides, respectively, and have majority-minority populations.
However, lakefront communities from the Near South Side to the Near North Side – districts 1, 18, and 19 especially – also were hit with far more carjackings in 2021 than in any years since 2010. A case in point is that combined in 2010, Districts 18 and 19 (now including River North, Lincoln Park and Lakeview) had eight carjackings in total, whereas in 2021 they had 103. That’s an increase of almost 13-fold.
As well, in 2021 other formerly safer places saw dramatically higher numbers of carjackings than in 2010. These included District 14 on the Northwest Side (Albany Park); District 22 on the Southwest Side (Morgan Park, Washington Heights, Beverly and Mount Greenwood); and District 24 on the far North Side (Rogers Park and West Ridge).
Other districts with notable jumps in number of carjackings from 2010 to 2021 included the 9th on the near South Side (McKinley Park and Bridgeport); the 4th on the far Southeast Side (Avalon Park, South Chicago, Burnside, South Deering); and the 3rd (Woodlawn, South Shore).
The upshot: Everyone’s feeling carjacking anxiety in Chicago. It’s accentuated further because in several shocking instances in recent years, victims of attempted carjackings have also been slain.
All told, Chicago needs a big turn for the better. So far the best news on crime that Mayor Lori Lightfoot has been able to cite is slight one-year decreases to date in 2022 in homicides and number of shooting incidents, versus the horrific baseline year of 2021. Versus 2019-to-date, though, homicides are still up 29 percent and shooting incidents up 13 percent.
The data on Chicago carjacking through the years, and especially through the first half of 2022, serves as an unfortunate example of what happens when a city becomes “open” for crime, with no real deterrence or consequences in most instances.
Consider today’s disturbing backdrop. A rash of mob attacks on police cars and shootings of and at police in Chicago. Add to that apparent de-policing driven by political hostility to cops. Plus a surge in violent lawlessness on the city’s transit system. Now, factor in ongoing carnage with dozens wounded and killed, as occurred over the July 4th weekend and the two weekends after.
It all points to the failure of Cook County courts and Chicago City Hall to meaningfully curtail violent disorder here.
The common thread uniting many is fear, based on a growing and valid perception of risk on the city’s streets. And few other things bring to life the risks of Chicago like the horrific crime of carjacking, and particularly, armed carjacking.
It is true that you can still spot weekend crowds thronging downtown and Millennium Park, and jamming restaurant row in the West Loop. But on the streets they are hyper-aware, their heads on a swivel. They know they are playing against increasingly risky odds.
It is tragic for Chicago to lose control of its streets in this manner, and for citizens and visitors to have their economic and personal freedoms to enjoy this once-great city so sharply curtailed.
The current state of carjackings and attendant criminal ills in Chicago strongly suggests that the city and Cook County are quite poorly served by their current elected leaders. Among other things, we pay them to keep us safe. And they are failing.
*Based on the June 30 and year-end results for 2021. And, for reporting purposes in this story, we limited our analysis to 2010 going forward. However, publicly available data goes back to 2001. And it shows that the “12-year record” of 1,848 carjackings in 2021 we’re discussing here is actually at least a 22-year record.
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