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Dupage Policy Journal

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Pritzker's Restore Illinois' plan could take a year or more, says DuPage physician

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Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s COVID-19 plan to reopen Illinois has five stages. For heavily populated areas, it may take up to 12-18 months before businesses open and the mask requirement is lifted, says a DuPage physician.

Congressional candidate Jeanne Ives spoke with Dr. Kevin Most, Chief Medical Officer at Northwestern Medicine at Central DuPage Hospital, on May 6 about the governor’s plan.

“We may be in Phase 2 [of Governor Pritzker’s reopen plan] for quite some time," Most said. "For us [in the suburbs of Chicago], to get to Phase 5, the way he has described it, it may be a year from now. It may be a year and a half from now because we may not have a vaccine by that time.”

In addition to discussing contact tracing and antibody testing, Most addressed CDH's designation as a test site for Remdesivir by the National Institutes of Health.

“We are hopeful that Remdesivir helps, but it is not a wonder-drug,” he said. “It’s not like an antibiotic that you take and in a couple days you feel better… that’s not a cure. That’s not going to slow down the spread." The doctor compared Remdesivir's role in coronavirus to Tamiflu's role in the flu.

On May 5, the governor announced his plan. Sectioning the state into four regions—Northeast Illinois, North-Central, Central, and Southern—each will move through the phases in the plan.

The plan was dubbed Restore Illinois. Its five stages are as follows:

Phase 1 – Rapid Spread: The rate of infection among those tested and the number of patients admitted to the hospital is high or rapidly increasing. Strict stay at home and social distancing guidelines are put in place and only essential businesses remain open. Every region has experienced this phase once already, and could return to it if mitigation efforts are unsuccessful.

Phase 2 – Flattening: The rate of infection among those tested and the number of patients admitted to the hospital beds and ICU beds increases at an ever slower rate, moving toward a flat and even a downward trajectory. Non-essential retail stores reopen for curbside pickup and delivery. Illinoisans are directed to wear a face covering when outside the home and can begin enjoying additional outdoor activities like golf, boating and fishing while practicing social distancing. To varying degrees, every region is experiencing flattening as of early May.

Phase 3 – Recovery: The rate of infection among those surveillance tested, the number of patients admitted to the hospital, and the number of patients needing ICU beds is stable or declining. Manufacturing, offices, retail, barbershops and salons can reopen to the public with capacity and other limits and safety precautions. Gatherings limited to 10 people or fewer are allowed. Face coverings and social distancing are the norm.

Phase 4 – Revitalization: The rate of infection among those surveillance tested, and the number of patients admitted to the hospital continues to decline. Gatherings of 50 people or fewer are allowed, restaurants and bars reopen, travel resumes, childcare and schools reopen under guidance from the Illinois Department of Public Health. Face coverings and social distancing are the norm.

Phase 5 – Illinois Restored: With a vaccine or highly effective treatment widely available or the elimination of any new cases over a sustained period, the economy fully reopens with safety precautions continuing. Conventions, festivals and large events are permitted, and all businesses, schools and places of recreation can open with new safety guidance and procedures in place reflecting the lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It will take quite some time for Illinois to move through all five stages, and the plan acknowledges that backsliding is possible if coronavirus flares up again.

Jeanne Ives suggests all Illinois residents watch the interview.

“What Dr. Most told me today is alarming. For the next 12-18 months, if the Governor’s plan remains in place, we will be wearing face masks, practicing social distance, and not be allowed to gather in groups of over 50 people," she said.

"Once we see outcomes in other states," said Ives, "hopefully, the Governor can assess our results compared to our neighbors and adjust his plans because the economic impact is huge.”

The interview with Most is part of Ives' coronavirus series with experts and influencers.

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